IETA COP29 Daily Update: 11 November 2024

Greetings from Baku!

Stepping off the plane at Heydar Aliyev airport yesterday morning was a throwback to one of my favourite COPs in Poland six years ago. As I disembarked at Katowice airport in December 2018 my senses were immediately hit by the presence of coal – it was everywhere, the heavy, slightly sweet smell of ancient fossil fuels. The host country charmingly reinforced the point not only by setting up its COP venue on top of an old coal mine, but also by displaying coal and various coal-derived products (jewellery!) at their pavilion.

Here in Baku, it’s oil. On our final approach to the airport the dawn sky was lit up by an absolutely enormous oilfield flare, the smell of hydrocarbons was inescapable as soon as we emerged from the terminal building, and the skyline along the road into the city was dotted with a few horsehead pumps; a reminder that Azerbaijan is the world’s 24th largest oil producer.

And there was almost a sense of inevitability to reports by the BBC that a senior official from the Azerbaijani hosts had been caught on camera discussing deals to promote further fossil fuel development. This echoes the kerfuffle at COP28 last year, when the COP president Sultan al-Jaber was alleged to have been using his role to promote oil deals.

The mood music at the start of COP29 was heavily influenced by last week’s US presidential and congressional election, though it remains to be seen how the US delegation will interact with colleagues in the negotiating rooms. Much of the commentary has been rather pessimistic, with numerous outlets predicting that President Trump will once again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, if not the UNFCCC.

But as our CEO has pointed out to journalists already, the US delegation here in Baku answers to the current administration, and we hope international negotiators use their time wisely in Baku to advance work on climate finance and carbon markets to set the stage for next year’s vital work, whatever developments may come from Washington.

Coming into this year’s summit, the mainstream focus has largely been on the negotiations over the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, the successor to the 2009 Copenhagen pledge to mobilise $100 billion a year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. Discussions have been a little strained so far, with some developing countries talking about trillions rather than billions, while the age-old debate over which countries should contribute is expected to get another airing in the coming fortnight.

In his statement to the opening COP plenary this morning, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said “the UNFCCC process is the only place we have to address the rampant climate crisis, and to credibly hold each other to account to act on it.”

Not only must nations agree on the NCQG, but they must also “work harder to reform the global financial system…giving countries the fiscal space they so desperately need.”

And “we need to move forward on mitigation, so targets from Dubai are realised.”

Indeed, there has been a steady drumbeat of encouragement for countries to ramp up their climate ambition in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (dubbed “NDCs 3.0” by the UNFCCC), the deadline for which is next year. We’re expecting quite a number of updated NDCs to be announced over the next fortnight; Brazil announced its 2035 target of a 59-67% cut over the weekend, and the UK is set to publish its new NDC on Tuesday.

And there continues to be considerable discussion over the impact of “climate change related, trade-restrictive unilateral measures”, otherwise known as CBAMs.

In fact, the formal opening of the COP was delayed by several hours amid disagreement over the adoption of a formal agenda for the next two weeks. In addition to disagreements on how to treat finance in the agenda, a group of countries including China, India, Russia and South Africa insisted on a discussion of trade measures, with the EU pushing back. Eventually matters were resolved and CBAM stayed off the table at this COP.

Article 6: Lift-off for 6.4, and a rap on the wrists for the SB

For us at IETA, of course, Article 6 will be the main focus. COP29 saw Parties resuming talks over implementation of the market mechanisms, involving technical but critical decisions on the procedures that generate tradable mitigation outcomes.